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I am a Senior Economist at the Central Bank of Ireland, with prior experience in the private sector and at the European Systemic Risk Board. I’m currently involved in forecasting in the Irish Economic Analysis Division. My research focuses on banking, artificial intelligence, financial stability, systemic risk, and the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks.
Recent publications
The Macroeconomics of AI Capacity: Insights from a Two-Asset Growth Model (2026)
Jonathan Rice
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 30, e22
Cambridge Core DOI
This paper develops a two-asset growth model in which AI capacity is a distinct, rapidly depreciating productive asset. It shows how hardware obsolescence, lumpy investment and capacity constraints can shape the macroeconomic effects of AI adoption. The framework highlights welfare-relevant tradeoffs for policy when the pace of AI investment runs ahead of the economy’s ability to absorb and replace the underlying hardware.
Riding the Rate Wave: Interest Rate and Run Risks in Euro Area Banks During the 2022-2023 Monetary Cycle (2026)
Jonathan Rice, Giulia Maria Guerrini
Journal of International Money and Finance, 160, 103444
Journal ECB Working Paper SSRN VoxEU SUERF Policy Brief
This paper studies how the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle changed euro area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Using granular supervisory data, it connects interest-rate risk, deposit-franchise values and run incentives during a period of unusually rapid rate increases. The results help explain why many banks remained resilient even as higher rates exposed balance-sheet vulnerabilities across the banking system.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks in Small Open Economies: A Case Study of Ireland (2023)
Jonathan Rice
The Economic and Social Review, 54(4), 217-245
Journal PDF Data
This paper constructs and uses an Irish economic policy uncertainty index to study how uncertainty shocks affect a small open economy. The empirical analysis traces the response of macroeconomic and financial variables following policy uncertainty shocks, with particular attention to Ireland’s openness and exposure to external conditions. The paper also provides the underlying data series used for the analysis, making the index available for ongoing research and monitoring.
Work in Progress
Euro Area Investment Patterns and Exposure to AI-dependent Firms, with Raffaele Giuliana, Giulia Maria Guerrini and Mikael Hagelstam.
Draft available on requestStructural Scenario Analysis with Granular Stress Testing Models, with Juan Rubio Ramirez.
Draft available on request
Data
I maintain the Ireland Economic Policy Uncertainty Index dataset and related materials. See the Data page, and the external project page at https://www.policyuncertainty.com/ireland_rice.html.